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The Hispanic ascendancy
Published: November 9, 2012
ON THE right, President Barack Obama’s
surprisingly solid victory Tuesday is being attributed to his
success at buying the loyalty of low-income Americans by
expanding government benefits and handouts, while on the left,
it’s being celebrated as the long-overdue triumph of the
interests of the masses over the privileges of the few.
You could hardly come up with more divergent interpretations.
But one thing both sides agree on: His victory could not have
come without the huge increase in the number of Hispanic voters
in the country over the last 20 years.
According to exit poll data analyzed by the New York Times, in
1992, whites made up 87 percent of the electorate, a number that
this year had fallen to 72 percent. Meanwhile, in just the past
four years, 4 million Hispanic voters were added to the
electorate, increasing their share of the vote to 10 percent.
And while 59 percent of whites supported Mitt Romney for
president, 71 percent of Hispanics picked Obama. Combine the
president’s support among them with the 93 percent of blacks and
the 73 percent of Asians who backed him, and you had an
unbeatable formula for Democratic success at the polls.
Obama himself agreed with this analysis.
“A big reason I will win a second term is because the Republican
nominee and the Republican Party have so alienated the
fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the Latino
community,” he told The Des Moines Register last summer, after
announcing his administration would grant work permits to
illegal immigrants who came to this country as children.
It’s long been true that a majority of whites vote Republican.
The last time a Democratic candidate for president captured most
of the white vote was in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson trounced
Barry Goldwater. But only recently has the minority vote been
large enough to sway an election.
The question for Democrats and Republicans today is: How
long-lasting will the minority-Democratic Party alliance
prevail?
Most analysts in the post-election debate are acting as though
it’s permanent.
“The 2008 and 2012 Obama coalitions are no longer the exception
to electoral politics. They are the new rule,” wrote Juan
Williams in the Wall Street Journal.
“The conservative consensus that took hold of America with
Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980 is over,” trumpeted Bob Moser
in The American Prospect.
And in New York magazine, Jonathan Chait called last week’s
election, “the white right’s last gasp.”
Little mentioned in their analyses was the fact that Obama’s
success also sprang from his solid support among low-income
voters, not to mention the longstanding tendancy of people to
start voting Republican as soon as they move out of low-income
groups and start paying plenty of taxes.
Last week, 63 percent of voters with annual incomes less than
$30,000 backed Obama, while Romney was the choice of 54 percent
of voters who make more than $100,000 a year — proportions that
have been evident in many elections.
Conservatives would say that the failure of Obama’s economic
stimulus programs, and the colossal debt he ran up to implement
them, will keep the country’s poor that way for a long time, not
to mention add to their numbers. Free markets and individual
intiative are the only forces that can lift large numbers of the
poor out of their poverty, as they have done in many parts of
the world over the last 200 years, Republicans say.
Meanwhile, Democrats claim that it’s the Republicans who
perpetuate economic hardship among the masses, including
Hispanics and other minorities, and that only liberal policies
will provide a path to prosperity for them.
If the Democrats are right, now is their chance to prove it. But
in the process, will they be saying goodbye to a lot of their
voters?